Weekly expected deaths model validation
Jonas Schöley
2020-11-09
Results across countries
Errors: Total deaths weeks 10 to 27
| Absolute count and percentage error | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DNK | ESP | FIN | FRATNP | NOR | SWE | |||||||
| F | M | F | M | F | M | F | M | F | M | F | M | |
| 5-year avg. weekly mortality | 213 (2.5) | 392 (4.5) | 1518 (2.3) | 1755 (2.6) | 341 (4.0) | 440 (5.2) | 2158 (2.3) | 2838 (3.1) | 150 (2.3) | 416 (6.7) | 543 (3.8) | 815 (6.0) |
| CODA-GAM ILR centered deaths | 187 (2.1) | 224 (2.5) | 1116 (1.7) | 1159 (1.8) | 284 (3.3) | 157 (1.8) | 3679 (4.0) | 2098 (2.3) | 151 (2.2) | 161 (2.6) | 356 (2.5) | 287 (2.1) |
| CODA-LM ILR centered deaths | 193 (2.2) | 242 (2.7) | 961 (1.5) | 1188 (1.8) | 256 (2.9) | 139 (1.6) | 3484 (3.8) | 2120 (2.3) | 150 (2.2) | 158 (2.5) | 360 (2.5) | 289 (2.1) |
| PCLM | 161 (1.9) | 8779 (100.0) | 1568 (2.4) | 66986 (100.0) | 366 (4.2) | 8621 (100.0) | 3082 (3.4) | 93307 (100.0) | 104 (1.6) | 6269 (100.0) | 236 (1.6) | 13909 (100.0) |
| Poisson GAM | 277 (3.2) | 349 (3.9) | 1501 (2.3) | 1417 (2.1) | 251 (2.9) | 151 (1.8) | 2643 (2.9) | 2021 (2.2) | 107 (1.6) | 148 (2.4) | 383 (2.6) | 322 (2.3) |
| Serfling-Poisson GLM | 284 (3.3) | 357 (4.0) | 1485 (2.3) | 1407 (2.1) | 245 (2.8) | 151 (1.8) | 2558 (2.8) | 1979 (2.1) | 113 (1.7) | 146 (2.3) | 375 (2.6) | 320 (2.3) |
| Lowest error bold, highest error italic. | ||||||||||||
| Mean percentage error (Bias) | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DNK | ESP | FIN | FRATNP | NOR | SWE | |||||||
| F | M | F | M | F | M | F | M | F | M | F | M | |
| 5-year avg. weekly mortality | −1.9 | −3.6 | −2.0 | −2.6 | −3.4 | −5.2 | −0.7 | −3.0 | −2.3 | −6.7 | −3.8 | −6.0 |
| CODA-GAM ILR centered deaths | 1.6 | 0.6 | −0.6 | −0.7 | −1.2 | −0.5 | −1.8 | −0.7 | 0.8 | −0.4 | −1.5 | −0.4 |
| CODA-LM ILR centered deaths | 1.7 | 0.8 | −0.0 | −0.7 | −1.0 | −0.4 | −1.6 | −0.6 | 0.9 | −0.1 | −1.4 | 0.1 |
| PCLM | −0.3 | 100.0 | −1.5 | 100.0 | −2.0 | 100.0 | −1.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | −1.5 | 100.0 |
| Poisson GAM | 2.8 | 2.3 | −0.3 | 0.2 | −1.6 | −0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | −1.3 | −1.6 | −0.9 |
| Serfling-Poisson GLM | 2.9 | 2.5 | −0.4 | 0.2 | −1.5 | −0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | −1.0 | −1.5 | −0.9 |
| Lowest error bold, highest error italic. | ||||||||||||
Errors: Weekly death counts weeks 10 to 27
| Absolute count and percentage error | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DNK | ESP | FIN | FRATNP | NOR | SWE | |||||||
| F | M | F | M | F | M | F | M | F | M | F | M | |
| 5-year avg. weekly mortality | 29 (5.7) | 33 (6.5) | 155 (4.0) | 138 (3.6) | 36 (7.1) | 36 (7.4) | 222 (3.9) | 239 (4.4) | 23 (6.0) | 29 (8.3) | 53 (6.2) | 59 (7.5) |
| CODA-GAM ILR centered deaths | 24 (4.7) | 25 (4.9) | 151 (3.9) | 124 (3.1) | 31 (6.1) | 26 (5.2) | 297 (5.4) | 208 (3.8) | 21 (5.3) | 18 (5.1) | 40 (4.7) | 35 (4.4) |
| CODA-LM ILR centered deaths | 28 (5.3) | 29 (5.5) | 146 (3.8) | 134 (3.4) | 34 (6.6) | 29 (5.9) | 300 (5.4) | 217 (3.9) | 23 (5.8) | 21 (5.8) | 44 (5.1) | 38 (4.6) |
| PCLM | 24 (4.8) | 516 (100.0) | 194 (5.0) | 3940 (100.0) | 32 (6.4) | 507 (100.0) | 307 (5.6) | 5488 (100.0) | 20 (5.2) | 368 (100.0) | 37 (4.4) | 818 (100.0) |
| Poisson GAM | 26 (5.1) | 27 (5.0) | 136 (3.5) | 124 (3.1) | 29 (5.8) | 24 (4.9) | 215 (3.8) | 182 (3.3) | 18 (4.7) | 18 (5.0) | 40 (4.7) | 37 (4.6) |
| Serfling-Poisson GLM | 27 (5.1) | 27 (5.1) | 133 (3.4) | 124 (3.1) | 29 (5.7) | 24 (4.8) | 207 (3.7) | 175 (3.1) | 18 (4.7) | 18 (4.9) | 40 (4.7) | 36 (4.5) |
| Lowest error bold, highest error italic. | ||||||||||||
| Mean percentage error (Bias) | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DNK | ESP | FIN | FRATNP | NOR | SWE | |||||||
| F | M | F | M | F | M | F | M | F | M | F | M | |
| 5-year avg. weekly mortality | −1.9 | −3.6 | −2.0 | −2.6 | −3.4 | −5.2 | −0.7 | −3.0 | −2.3 | −6.7 | −3.8 | −6.0 |
| CODA-GAM ILR centered deaths | 1.6 | 0.6 | −0.6 | −0.7 | −1.2 | −0.5 | −1.8 | −0.7 | 0.8 | −0.4 | −1.5 | −0.4 |
| CODA-LM ILR centered deaths | 1.7 | 0.8 | −0.0 | −0.7 | −1.0 | −0.4 | −1.6 | −0.6 | 0.9 | −0.1 | −1.4 | 0.1 |
| PCLM | −0.3 | 100.0 | −1.5 | 100.0 | −2.0 | 100.0 | −1.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | −1.5 | 100.0 |
| Poisson GAM | 2.8 | 2.3 | −0.3 | 0.2 | −1.6 | −0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | −1.3 | −1.6 | −0.9 |
| Serfling-Poisson GLM | 2.9 | 2.5 | −0.4 | 0.2 | −1.5 | −0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | −1.0 | −1.5 | −0.9 |
| Lowest error bold, highest error italic. | ||||||||||||
Excess deaths 2020 weeks 10 to 27
| Excess deaths week 10 to 27 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DNK | ESP | FIN | FRATNP | NOR | SWE | |||||||
| F | M | F | M | F | M | F | M | F | M | F | M | |
| 5-year avg. weekly mortality | -445 [-601, -275] | -369 [-523, -205] | 20884 [20458, 21322] | 20541 [20147, 20971] | 221 [73, 394] | -81 [-223, 60] | 11758 [11206, 12263] | 10046 [9522, 10543] | -291 [-425, -153] | -256 [-388, -115] | 2057 [1847, 2264] | 2466 [2252, 2676] |
| CODA-GAM ILR centered deaths | 133 [-24, 293] | 121 [-46, 287] | 25215 [24795, 25616] | 24708 [24306, 25157] | 474 [317, 644] | 322 [158, 470] | 13607 [13066, 14087] | 14081 [13569, 14604] | -90 [-223, 37] | 72 [-49, 194] | 2566 [2371, 2760] | 3449 [3255, 3628] |
| CODA-LM ILR centered deaths | 132 [-16, 290] | 136 [-9, 287] | 25176 [24759, 25556] | 24600 [24199, 25036] | 437 [279, 597] | 322 [155, 481] | 13614 [13094, 14125] | 14096 [13583, 14600] | -85 [-218, 39] | 71 [-53, 198] | 2555 [2357, 2748] | 3456 [3265, 3647] |
| PCLM | 173 [17, 323] | NA [NA, NA] | NA [NA, NA] | NA [NA, NA] | NA [NA, NA] | NA [NA, NA] | NA [NA, NA] | NA [NA, NA] | NA [NA, NA] | NA [NA, NA] | 3018 [2808, 3211] | NA [NA, NA] |
| Poisson GAM | 100 [-43, 244] | 245 [91, 409] | 22874 [22456, 23294] | 23090 [22657, 23561] | 318 [151, 472] | 281 [127, 427] | 13424 [12938, 13944] | 13351 [12838, 13880] | -138 [-270, -14] | 56 [-85, 189] | 2313 [2083, 2506] | 3060 [2863, 3255] |
| Serfling-Poisson GLM | 106 [-50, 244] | 268 [123, 415] | 22772 [22362, 23184] | 23046 [22655, 23471] | 336 [171, 490] | 290 [136, 437] | 13262 [12720, 13782] | 13258 [12793, 13746] | -118 [-253, 11] | 74 [-49, 199] | 2317 [2112, 2495] | 3065 [2878, 3259] |
Results by country
DNK
ESP
FIN
FRATNP
NOR
SWE
