Weekly expected deaths model validation
Jonas Schöley
2020-10-12
Results across countries
| Cumulative deaths week 10 to 27 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean absolute percentage error | ||||||||||||
| DNK | ESP | FIN | FRATNP | NOR | SWE | |||||||
| F | M | F | M | F | M | F | M | F | M | F | M | |
| Avg. weekly mortality | 4.8 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 9.2 | 2.6 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 11.1 | 5.4 | 8.7 |
| CODA LM | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.9 |
| Serfling-Poisson GLM | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.3 |
| Serfling-Poisson GLM (only full year cycle) | 2.7 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 2.5 |
| Bold font indicates lowest error. | ||||||||||||
| Weekly deaths week 10 to 27 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean absolute percentage error | ||||||||||||
| DNK | ESP | FIN | FRATNP | NOR | SWE | |||||||
| F | M | F | M | F | M | F | M | F | M | F | M | |
| Avg. weekly mortality | 6.9 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 8.0 | 10.2 | 4.1 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 11.8 | 7.2 | 9.4 |
| CODA LM | 5.4 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 4.7 |
| Serfling-Poisson GLM | 5.1 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.5 |
| Serfling-Poisson GLM (only full year cycle) | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 4.9 |
| Bold font indicates lowest error. | ||||||||||||
Results by country
DNK
ESP
FIN
FRATNP
NOR
SWE
