Pristine Reef Wanted Dead or Alive

Mauro Lepore & Aaron O'Dea

bookdown.org/maurolepore/sfs

May be true, but unhelpful and dangerous

Because it promotes giving up on a problem before seeking solutions

Rachel Nuwer, 8 February 2016, BBC.

We need a pragmatic definition of 'pristine'

Shift focus from problems to solutions

Mauro Lepore and Aaron O'Dea

Pattern

Most coral reefs in the Caribbean are degraded

Decline caused by overfishing and disease (last 40 yrs; Jackson et al.,2014).

Exceptions

Bright spots

Bright spots among the world's coral reefs (Cinner et al., 2016).

What is pristine & reefs' status?

Define 'pristine' reefs with data

Test if the general pattern confirms decline

If there is any exeption, reveal it

Define 'pristine' reefs & evaluate their condition

Pragmatic approach: The Natural Range of Variation (NRV)

Adapted from Symstad & Jonas (2014).

Sampling in Colon Is. (Bocas, Caribbean Panama)

mid-Holocene: 16 comm. from 4 sites; subrecent: 22 comm. from 5 sites

Age: Sweet Bocas: 6400-6700 yr, n = 4; Lennond (~2km SE): 5700-7200 yr, n = 9 (Fredston et al. 2013).

We sampled coral communities from modern reefs sites (several years-decades old) and from mid-Holocene reef sites (approximately 7,000 years old) in Almirante Bay (Caribbean Panama)

SUBRECENT SAMPLES

water depth ~2-12 m
3-5 samples from 5 sites
22 subrecent samples in total

MID HOLOCENE SAMPLES

From the mid-Holocene sites we collected 2-5 samples
16 mid-Holocene samples

INFORMATION SOURCE AND APPROACH

Focal ecosystem: Coral reefs in Almirante Bay
Attributes of interest: a) community structure, b) diversity, c) evenness?
scale: kilometers; few years-few thousand years.
sample unit: grab samples (most comparable between time intervals, simple, cheap)
mid-Holocene: reef development started, human impact if any was negligible.
subrecent: capture natural events affecting ecological structure better than live coral surveys. Comparable because belong to same depth range (above coral heads).

Definition of 'pristine' reefs

Ecological variation among mid-Holocene communities (NRV)

Summary (2D) of Bray-Curtis dissimilarities among 16 mid-Holocene coral communities.

Pattern

Subrecent reefs differ from pristine

Subrecent sites show similar variation but dramatically different ecological structure (adonis, p < 0.01).

Exception

Following our pragmatic definition, Punta Caracol reef is 'pristine'

Punta Caracol vs. other subrecent sites: p < 0.01; vs. mid-Holocene sites: p = 0.05.

Exception

Without A. cervicornis, Punta Caracol is still different

Punta Caracol is still different from other subrecent sites (p < 0.01). (Versus mid-Holocene sites p = 0.01.)

Conclusion

Punta Caracol is an exception to the regional pattern of reefs' decline

We show how to pragmatically evaluate human impact on coral reefs

This sets the road to ID bright spots and to learn why they are possible

Thanks

maurolepore@gmail.com - odealab.com

John Pandolfi | Andrew Altieri | Short Term Fellowship program | Donors

bookdown.org/maurolepore/sfs

Supplement

Abstract

xxx improve this abstract and remove it

Coral reefs deteriorate worldwide, but we fail to reliably evaluate their state now and to effectively guide their management because we lack appropriate references of their natural condition. We sampled coral communities from modern reefs sites (several years-decades old) and from mid-Holocene reef sites (approximately 7,000 years old) in Almirante Bay (Caribbean Panama), and compared their ecological structure. mid-Holocene communities were dominated by Acropora cervicornis (staghorn coral), but modern communities became dominated by Porites and Agaricia. Relative to the 7,000 year old reef sites in Sweet Bocas, modern reefs in Almirante Bay are significantly different, except Punta Caracol reef. This reef may reveal why, given the environmental and human pressures, some patches of ecosystem resist or recover from degradation better than others.

Methods

Facies from Sweet Bocas

Trench loggs Sweet Bocas

Trenching video

Concepts

Shifting baselines syndrome

(Pauly, 1995)

Caribbean's decline (1970-2012)

Outbreaks of Acropora and Diadema diseases,
too many tourists, and
overfishing.

Jackson et al. (2014). (Summary slides.)

Background

Caribbean's decline (1970-2012)

Jackson et al. (2014). Status and trends of Caribbean coral reefs.

7,000 yrs old reefs in Almirante Bay are useful

Anectodes from Sweet Bocas (~7,000 yrs ago)

Acropora prolifera (left) and Acropora palmata (right) from Sweet Bocas reef (~7,000 yrs old).

Results

S in subrecent reefs was similar to 'pristine'

Relative to mid-Holocene communities ('pristine'), S in subrecent reefs was similar (p = 0.45); lines show quartile 2 (grey), 1 and 3 (blue).

H' in subrecent reefs was similar to 'pristine'

Relative to mid-Holocene communities ('pristine'), S in subrecent reefs was similar (p = 0.72); lines show quartile 2 (grey), 1 and 3 (blue).

Different coral taxa dominate subrecent reefs

Punta Caracol vs. mid-Holocene reef sites

Guzmán & Guevara (1998) found largest patches of Acropora cervicornis around Punta Caracol.

Punta Caracol vs. subrecent reefs

Community structure of reef corals from Punta Caracol is similar to that from mid-Holocene sites.

Discussion

Is STRI point natural?

Agaricia and Porites were more abundance than Acropora cervicornis since ~1900.

STRI point: White and black horizontal line show boundary pre-post 1900 and 1960 (Cramer et al. 2013).

Are Casa Blanca & Ariport Point natural?

Agaricia and Porites dominated these reefs over the past ~2 millennia.

C ~ Casa Blanca; F ~ Airport Point 1 (Aronson et al. 2004).

Scientific storytelling, development

Materials

scene:
- coral reefs in Bocas del Toro (or some ecosystem that we care for)
- conceptual frameworks that scientists use to understant human impact and to managers to make decisions
protagonist: the natural range of variation of reef coral communities (of some ecosystem)
antagonists:
- current time-averaged condition (subreccent reefs)
  - Punta Caracol which condition is within the NRV
  - other subrecent reefs which condition is out of the NRV,
- mid-Holocene reefs, wich provide the data to set know the NRV
- historical evidence from previous studies
  - around 1960 Cramer et al 2012,
  - since around 3000 years ago Aronson 2004
climax: Punta Caracol is within the NRV
- has the same ecological structure than its historical counterpart and different than other subrecent reefs
conflict resolution (conclusion): Punta Caracol
- remains within its historical range of variation
stakes:
- Punta caracol should be managed differently to other subrecent reefs
  - Take back Punta Caracol to the scene, now ireversebly changed
- future models used to id bright spots should incorporate the mid-Holocene record

Title, alternatives

mid-Holocene reefs inform state now and guide management

mid-Holocene reveal reefs' state and guide management

Historical data reveals reefs' state and guide management

Historical variation informs reefs' state and management

Fossil reefs inform state now and future management

Natural variation informs reefs' state now and decisions

Let´s make reefs great again

the natural range of variation of coral reefs in Bahia Almirante (built using the historic fossil record of reef corals) indicates different strategies for management of different reefs.
The natural range of variation (built using the historic fossil record of reef corals) reveals that at least two different strategies should be used to manage coral reefs in Bahia Almirante, Caribbean Panama
The NRV of reef coral communities (protagonist) defines (resolution) ecological thresholds for coral (conflict) reefs (antagonist) in Bocas del Toro, Caribbean Panama (stage).

TITLE BROKEN DOWN

Reef coral communities from Punta Caracol (protagonist) fit (resolution) within the NRV for coral reefs in Bocas del Toro (scene) which means that it should be managed differently than other subrecent reefs

Abstract, alternatives

Hypothesis/idea worth sharing:

Fossil corals may reveal 'pristine' reefs and/or inform management

There may be 'pristine' ecosystem-patches, but to find them we need to know what we are looking for.

Now, Coral reefs in Bocas del Toro are different compared to what they were in 1970s (Jackson et al 2014), in 1960 (Cramer et al 2012) and since 3000 yr ago.
BUT reefs here originated aprox 7000 years ago, THEREFORE the natural range of variation is pooly understood, AND if any reef escaped human impact, we don't know what it should look like nor where it is.

The natural range of variation [accounts for the natural dynamics of ecosystems and] allows scientists to notice [the effect of] human impact on natural ecosystems, and to inform managers for them to [set decision thresholds and] take concrete action[–depending on the natural, desired and current state of ecosystems].

Coral reefs are declining worldwide, AND in Bocas del Toro (Caribbean Panama) evidence since 3000 years ago shows dramatic change in the ecological structure of reef corals BUT if any reef escaped degradation we don't know what if looks like not where it is.

BUT

by 5000 yrs ago indigenous peoples had already settled in the region AND
reefs developed around 7000 years ago.

THEREFORE

The temporal window from 7000-3000 is critical to understanding the dynamics of coral reefs in natural conditions (i.e. without humans) BUT

this temporal window remains unexplored

we need to study it!

write 2-3 sentences to describe experiments that incrementally increase the insight into the character of the protagonist of how we revealed the character of the protagonist, which increases tension

SENTENCE 1

In Bocas del Toro, mid-Holocene reefs represents best the natural range of variation because

- reefs here developed since ~7000 yr ago, after sealevel stabilised around its current position AND
- there is no evidence of human settlement until 5000 yr ago.

Mid-Holocene reefs where dominated by Acropora cervicornis, WHAT OTHER TAXA WHERE MOST IMPORTANT? (show rank abundance of all mid-Holocene sites combined)

[and Acropora was generally thriving].

- _Acropora cervicornis_ was the most abundant taxa in our samples 
- _Acropora palmata_ was found in the site but did not appear much in our smaples (sohw photos)
- ANECDOTE: _Acropora prolifera_ had already hybridized (show photo)

SENTENCE 2

AND - subrecent reefs are generally different to mid-Holocene reefs (show rank abundance of subrecent reefs, or a result from adonis, with and without Acropora cervicornis)

BUT

not all subrecent reefs are the same
- show adonis within subrecent, should be significant but we don't know what site is the different one yet
- maybe show mds within subrecent, but we don't know which one is pristine. We need the fossil to know what is pristine?

describe the climax experimet, that is the strongest evidence of the hypothesis

AND

Punta Caracol is significantly different to other subrecent reefs AND similar to mid-Holocene reefs
- show mds with subrecent and mid-Holocene

validate the climax experiment using a separate technique. in my case, show how exactly is punta caracol similar in species composition and abundance when copmared to the mid-holocene reefs, and different to the other subrecent reefs

THEREFORE

Punta Caracol fits the natural range of variation
- examine rank abundance by site

1-2 sentences with the protagonist back to scene, now, irreversibly changed with the problem resolved. This is, punta caracol is within the historical range of variation and needs monitoring but not action to take  it to the desired state. The other  reefs should be either managed with effort to take them to  desired state within the NRV or a new desired state.

AND

should be managed differently than other subrecent reefs
- place punta caracol and other reefs into the initial conceptual framework.

Outline, figures and captions

INCREASE TENSION

Why we need to understand the natural variation of an ecosystem (to inform its sate now and guide future decisions)
Approaches to understand natural variation
Timeline of the focal ecosystem we chose
Approach we used

…

richness didn't change
taxa's ranking changed
Taken together, what are midholocene reefs like? (rank abundance). We find out what we expected, they are great!

CLIMAX figure: Community structure through time (MDS (p value adonis). Compare subrecent and mid Holocene generally, MDS

maybe show mds with all subrecent in one colour and all mid Holocene in another one, and the subrecent inside the pristine area in a different one
plot contour around mid-Holocene to remind the idea of historical data being like a balloon that may or may not encompass modern data

Find out:

Is it possible to establish a threshold with diversity and evenness as in the book chapter I read?
How can I define a range of action using mds? Is it too complicated for decision making?

RELAX TENSION

Validate that Punta Caracol is pristine by comparing rank abundance of species in it versus other subrecent sites and midholocene sites.

Discussion: About extrapolation to sites elsewhere. In the absence of other fossil reefs our data may be the best available source of information.

We don't focus on the causes of the differences among subrecent sites, but on the fact they are actually different when compared to the fossil record.

Pristine Reef Wanted Dead or Alive

Mauro Lepore & Aaron O'Dea

bookdown.org/maurolepore/sfs

May be true, but unhelpful and dangerous

Because it promotes giving up on a problem before seeking solutions

We need a pragmatic definition of 'pristine'

Shift focus from problems to solutions

Mauro Lepore and Aaron O'Dea

Pattern

Most coral reefs in the Caribbean are degraded

Exceptions

Bright spots

What is pristine & reefs' status?

Define 'pristine' reefs with data

Test if the general pattern confirms decline

If there is any exeption, reveal it

Define 'pristine' reefs & evaluate their condition

Pragmatic approach: The Natural Range of Variation (NRV)

Sampling in Colon Is. (Bocas, Caribbean Panama)

mid-Holocene: 16 comm. from 4 sites; subrecent: 22 comm. from 5 sites

Definition of 'pristine' reefs

Ecological variation among mid-Holocene communities (NRV)

Pattern

Subrecent reefs differ from pristine

Exception

Following our pragmatic definition, Punta Caracol reef is 'pristine'

Exception

Without A. cervicornis, Punta Caracol is still different

Conclusion

Conclusion

Punta Caracol is an exception to the regional pattern of reefs' decline

We show how to pragmatically evaluate human impact on coral reefs

This sets the road to ID bright spots and to learn why they are possible

Thanks

maurolepore@gmail.com - odealab.com

bookdown.org/maurolepore/sfs

Supplement

Abstract

Methods

Facies from Sweet Bocas

Trench loggs Sweet Bocas

Concepts

Shifting baselines syndrome

Caribbean's decline (1970-2012)

Background

Caribbean's decline (1970-2012)

7,000 yrs old reefs in Almirante Bay are useful

Anectodes from Sweet Bocas (~7,000 yrs ago)

Results

S in subrecent reefs was similar to 'pristine'

H' in subrecent reefs was similar to 'pristine'

Different coral taxa dominate subrecent reefs

Punta Caracol vs. mid-Holocene reef sites

Punta Caracol vs. subrecent reefs

Discussion

Is STRI point natural?

Are Casa Blanca & Ariport Point natural?

Scientific storytelling, development

Scientific storytelling, loose ideas

Toolsbox

Todo