Rmd source

Data

Data published by GUS (https://stat.gov.pl/obszary-tematyczne/ludnosc/ludnosc/zgony-wedlug-tygodni,39,2.html) We remove last week as it is usually incomplete.

Total number of excess deaths

We measure excess deaths (or mortality) as the difference between 2015–2019 average and the number of deaths registered in relevant weeks in 2020 and 2021. From the data set we filter totals for sex, age and geo-region:

Total numer of excessive deaths in Poland (from 2020–2021) is: 152884.6 (last counted week number: 44)

The number of deaths in 2015–2021 period is shown at the following chart:

the same at polar coordinates grid (Nightingale Rose):

Excess deaths by age groups

First try; 6 age groups (0–30, 30–40, 40–50, 50–60, 60–70, 70–)

Totals by age group:

Next try; 5 age groups (0–60, 60–70, 70–80, 80–90, 90–)

Totals by age group:

Expected vs observed

Province-level analysis

From the data set we filter totals for sex and age. We exclude PL (ie totals for Poland) from geo-regions. We combine EuroStat macroregions PL91/PL92 back into województwo Mazowieckie.

Total number of excess deaths 2020–2021/44

Number of ‘expected’ deaths (2020–2021 per 1mln; the same period):

Number of ‘expected’ deaths (as 2015–2019 averages per 1mln) vs excess deaths (the same period)