El Tigre Weekly Prediction Week 3
April 27, 2020
“I don’t picture women in football, I’m sorry but this is my thinking” - Gennaro Gattuso
1 Introduction
We have used the prediction of previous week and compare them against the Johns Hopkins official data taken from their website (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/) at around noone. The official numbers are shown bellow.
| country | date | Death | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran | 2020-04-25 | 5650 | 89328 |
| Portugal | 2020-04-25 | 880 | 23392 |
| UK | 2020-04-25 | 20319 | 148377 |
Next figure shows the predicted values (Y-axis) against the official numbers (X-axis).
2 Calculating errors
2.1 Normalized error
It’s also interesting to normalize the error. Instead of large numbers (like US) determines the final ranking, we can try to normalize the errors. In this way, we are making all the predictions comparable.
$$
e = \frac{y - \hat{y}}{y} = 1 - \frac{\hat{y}}{y}
$$
For simplicity in understanding the numbers, they were converted to percentage.
We can also quantify the total error for each category (total cases and death numbers), separately. This may show different ranking to each predictions.
2.2 Final results
Therefore, here is the final ranking:
| Ranking | Name | Average error |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saeedi | 1.85 |
| 2 | Vasco | 2.07 |
| 3 | KK | 2.24 |
| 4 | Pinche | 2.70 |
| 5 | Dr. Brauwolf | 3.07 |
| 6 | Pedomi | 7.37 |
| 7 | A-Aron | 11.95 |
3 Pessimism
Next we can rank the players by the sum of errors (∑iei). It’s an indication of pessimism, if this value is negative. Therefore, we are ranking players based on their level of negativeness!
| Ranking | Name | Mentality |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pinche | -1.54 |
| 2 | Saeedi | -0.82 |
| 3 | Dr. Brauwolf | -0.56 |
| 4 | Vasco | 1.77 |
| 5 | KK | 2.24 |
| 6 | Pedomi | 7.08 |
| 7 | A-Aron | 11.95 |
4 Predictions over time
We have plotted the average error across time. With 53 points increase in performance, Saeedi is the best learner. Pedomi with only 21 points increase is the worst learner.
5 Countries
5.1 Player ranking by country
For each country, we have separately ranked players. Bellow how each player performed on each country (x-axis).
Table bellow shows the average absolute error for each player in each country:
| name | Iran | Portugal | UK |
|---|---|---|---|
| A-Aron | 7.970 | 12.646 | 15.243 |
| Dr. Brauwolf | 2.630 | 1.300 | 5.275 |
| KK | 1.087 | 2.465 | 3.174 |
| Pedomi | 0.626 | 6.885 | 14.606 |
| Pinche | 1.334 | 1.547 | 5.229 |
| Saeedi | 1.459 | 1.190 | 2.915 |
| Vasco | 2.056 | 2.902 | 1.246 |
We can also see the actual prediction errors:
5.2 Ranking countries by difficulty
Table bellow shows the ranking of countries by the level of difficulties.
| Ranking | Country | Average error | Mentality |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | India | 89.72 | -78.02 |
| 2 | Jamaica | 77.99 | -71.49 |
| 3 | Israel | 60.41 | -52.50 |
| 4 | US | 41.41 | 8.87 |
| 5 | Chile | 32.23 | -19.61 |
| 6 | Kuwait | 31.14 | -5.65 |
| 7 | Japan | 26.17 | 2.53 |
| 8 | Poland | 11.17 | -1.96 |
| 9 | Germany | 7.49 | 5.14 |
| 10 | UK | 6.81 | 3.42 |
| 11 | Portugal | 4.13 | 3.10 |
| 12 | Iran | 2.45 | 2.11 |
6 Type
6.1 Prediction error Death vs. Total cases
Prediction error between death and total cases were fairly similar. However, death seemed to be slightly more difficult.
| Ranking | Type | Total error | Mentality |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Death | 40.36 | -19.99 |
| 1 | Total | 21.90 | -11.84 |
7 Best and worst predictions
First, best predictions:| name | country | type | prediction | actual_count | error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dr. Brauwolf | Portugal | Death | 880 | 880 | 0.00 |
| Pedomi | Iran | Total | 89000 | 89328 | 0.37 |
| Pinche | Iran | Total | 89000 | 89328 | 0.37 |
| KK | Portugal | Death | 876 | 880 | 0.45 |
| KK | Iran | Total | 88888 | 89328 | 0.49 |
Next, we show the worst predictions of the week:
| name | country | type | prediction | actual_count | error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedomi | UK | Death | 16900 | 20319 | 16.83 |
| A-Aron | UK | Total | 125627 | 148377 | 15.33 |
| A-Aron | UK | Death | 17240 | 20319 | 15.15 |
| A-Aron | Portugal | Death | 747 | 880 | 15.11 |
| Pedomi | UK | Total | 130000 | 148377 | 12.39 |
8 Table
| Name | Oracle | Superhuman | Outstanding | Good | Average | Bad | Very bad | Terrible | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vasco | 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 40 |
| KK | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 30 |
| Pinche | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 25 |
| Saeedi | 0 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| Pedomi | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| A-Aron | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| Dr. Brauwolf | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| Smooth Op | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -16 |
8.1 Evolution of points over time
9 Average error each Week
10 Players similarity
11 Next week
We will select up to five countries from the list bellow. This list is genearted by the machine, selecting 15 random countries.
# List of countries
library(countrycode)
set.seed(20200425)
countries <- codelist$country.name.en
selected_countries <- sample(countries, 15)
print(selected_countries)## [1] "Samoa" "Cuba"
## [3] "Congo - Brazzaville" "Cook Islands"
## [5] "Brazil" "Sudan"
## [7] "Tuscany" "Madagascar"
## [9] "Oman" "Kazakhstan"
## [11] "Palestinian Territories" "Antarctica"
## [13] "Cyprus" "Laos"
## [15] "Spain"Next week’s challenge:
- Brazil
- Spain
- Russia
## [1] 3 6 11 15 2912 Apendix A: Scoring system
Scoring system
13 Apendix B: All predictions
| name | country | type | prediction | true count | date | error | badge | point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saeedi | US | Total | 280000 | 277607 | 2020-04-04 | -0.862 | Superhuman | 5 |
| Saeedi | US | Death | 5500 | 7406 | 2020-04-04 | 25.736 | Average | 0 |
| Saeedi | India | Total | 2500 | 3082 | 2020-04-04 | 18.884 | Average | 0 |
| Saeedi | India | Death | 150 | 86 | 2020-04-04 | -74.419 | Very bad | -3 |
| Saeedi | Jamaica | Total | 110 | 53 | 2020-04-04 | -107.547 | Terrible | -5 |
| Saeedi | Jamaica | Death | 9 | 3 | 2020-04-04 | -200.000 | Terrible | -5 |
| KK | US | Total | 450000 | 277607 | 2020-04-04 | -62.100 | Very bad | -3 |
| KK | US | Death | 5000 | 7406 | 2020-04-04 | 32.487 | Bad | -1 |
| KK | India | Total | 5000 | 3082 | 2020-04-04 | -62.232 | Very bad | -3 |
| KK | India | Death | 150 | 86 | 2020-04-04 | -74.419 | Very bad | -3 |
| KK | Jamaica | Total | 60 | 53 | 2020-04-04 | -13.208 | Average | 0 |
| KK | Jamaica | Death | 2 | 3 | 2020-04-04 | 33.333 | Bad | -1 |
| Pedomi | US | Total | 400000 | 277607 | 2020-04-04 | -44.089 | Bad | -1 |
| Pedomi | US | Death | 4000 | 7406 | 2020-04-04 | 45.990 | Bad | -1 |
| Pedomi | India | Total | 6000 | 3082 | 2020-04-04 | -94.679 | Very bad | -3 |
| Pedomi | India | Death | 200 | 86 | 2020-04-04 | -132.558 | Terrible | -5 |
| Pedomi | Jamaica | Total | 80 | 53 | 2020-04-04 | -50.943 | Very bad | -3 |
| Pedomi | Jamaica | Death | 5 | 3 | 2020-04-04 | -66.667 | Very bad | -3 |
| Smooth Op | US | Total | 300000 | 277607 | 2020-04-04 | -8.066 | Good | 1 |
| Smooth Op | US | Death | 3000 | 7406 | 2020-04-04 | 59.492 | Very bad | -3 |
| Smooth Op | India | Total | 8000 | 3082 | 2020-04-04 | -159.572 | Terrible | -5 |
| Smooth Op | India | Death | 150 | 86 | 2020-04-04 | -74.419 | Very bad | -3 |
| Smooth Op | Jamaica | Total | 90 | 53 | 2020-04-04 | -69.811 | Very bad | -3 |
| Smooth Op | Jamaica | Death | 5 | 3 | 2020-04-04 | -66.667 | Very bad | -3 |
| Dr. Brauwolf | US | Total | 500000 | 277607 | 2020-04-04 | -80.111 | Very bad | -3 |
| Dr. Brauwolf | US | Death | 6000 | 7406 | 2020-04-04 | 18.985 | Average | 0 |
| Dr. Brauwolf | India | Total | 7000 | 3082 | 2020-04-04 | -127.125 | Terrible | -5 |
| Dr. Brauwolf | India | Death | 250 | 86 | 2020-04-04 | -190.698 | Terrible | -5 |
| Dr. Brauwolf | Jamaica | Total | 100 | 53 | 2020-04-04 | -88.679 | Very bad | -3 |
| Dr. Brauwolf | Jamaica | Death | 10 | 3 | 2020-04-04 | -233.333 | Terrible | -5 |
| A-Aron | US | Total | 150000 | 277607 | 2020-04-04 | 45.967 | Bad | -1 |
| A-Aron | US | Death | 2000 | 7406 | 2020-04-04 | 72.995 | Very bad | -3 |
| A-Aron | India | Total | 1500 | 3082 | 2020-04-04 | 51.330 | Very bad | -3 |
| A-Aron | India | Death | 100 | 86 | 2020-04-04 | -16.279 | Average | 0 |
| A-Aron | Jamaica | Total | 50 | 53 | 2020-04-04 | 5.660 | Good | 1 |
| A-Aron | Jamaica | Death | 3 | 3 | 2020-04-04 | 0.000 | Oracle | 10 |
| Saeedi | Japan | Total | 3800 | 6005 | 2020-04-11 | 36.719 | Bad | -1 |
| Saeedi | Japan | Death | 115 | 99 | 2020-04-11 | -16.162 | Average | 0 |
| Saeedi | Chile | Total | 7450 | 6501 | 2020-04-11 | -14.598 | Average | 0 |
| Saeedi | Chile | Death | 84 | 65 | 2020-04-11 | -29.231 | Average | 0 |
| Saeedi | Israel | Total | 11250 | 10525 | 2020-04-11 | -6.888 | Good | 1 |
| Saeedi | Israel | Death | 87 | 96 | 2020-04-11 | 9.375 | Good | 1 |
| Pedomi | Japan | Total | 4000 | 6005 | 2020-04-11 | 33.389 | Bad | -1 |
| Pedomi | Japan | Death | 85 | 99 | 2020-04-11 | 14.141 | Average | 0 |
| Pedomi | Chile | Total | 5000 | 6501 | 2020-04-11 | 23.089 | Average | 0 |
| Pedomi | Chile | Death | 50 | 65 | 2020-04-11 | 23.077 | Average | 0 |
| Pedomi | Israel | Total | 11000 | 10525 | 2020-04-11 | -4.513 | Outstanding | 3 |
| Pedomi | Israel | Death | 300 | 96 | 2020-04-11 | -212.500 | Terrible | -5 |
| KK | Japan | Total | 3900 | 6005 | 2020-04-11 | 35.054 | Bad | -1 |
| KK | Japan | Death | 99 | 99 | 2020-04-11 | 0.000 | Oracle | 10 |
| KK | Chile | Total | 7200 | 6501 | 2020-04-11 | -10.752 | Average | 0 |
| KK | Chile | Death | 108 | 65 | 2020-04-11 | -66.154 | Very bad | -3 |
| KK | Israel | Total | 11100 | 10525 | 2020-04-11 | -5.463 | Good | 1 |
| KK | Israel | Death | 88 | 96 | 2020-04-11 | 8.333 | Good | 1 |
| Dr. Brauwolf | Japan | Total | 6000 | 6005 | 2020-04-11 | 0.083 | Superhuman | 5 |
| Dr. Brauwolf | Japan | Death | 200 | 99 | 2020-04-11 | -102.020 | Terrible | -5 |
| Dr. Brauwolf | Chile | Total | 7000 | 6501 | 2020-04-11 | -7.676 | Good | 1 |
| Dr. Brauwolf | Chile | Death | 150 | 65 | 2020-04-11 | -130.769 | Terrible | -5 |
| Dr. Brauwolf | Israel | Total | 12000 | 10525 | 2020-04-11 | -14.014 | Average | 0 |
| Dr. Brauwolf | Israel | Death | 400 | 96 | 2020-04-11 | -316.667 | Terrible | -5 |
| Vasco | Japan | Total | 4800 | 6005 | 2020-04-11 | 20.067 | Average | 0 |
| Vasco | Japan | Death | 95 | 99 | 2020-04-11 | 4.040 | Outstanding | 3 |
| Vasco | Chile | Total | 6400 | 6501 | 2020-04-11 | 1.554 | Superhuman | 5 |
| Vasco | Chile | Death | 55 | 65 | 2020-04-11 | 15.385 | Average | 0 |
| Vasco | Israel | Total | 11000 | 10525 | 2020-04-11 | -4.513 | Outstanding | 3 |
| Vasco | Israel | Death | 75 | 96 | 2020-04-11 | 21.875 | Average | 0 |
| Saeedi | Germany | Total | 134879 | 141397 | 2020-04-18 | 4.610 | Outstanding | 3 |
| Saeedi | Germany | Death | 3781 | 4352 | 2020-04-18 | 13.120 | Average | 0 |
| Saeedi | Kuwait | Total | 3146 | 1751 | 2020-04-18 | -79.669 | Very bad | -3 |
| Saeedi | Kuwait | Death | 4 | 6 | 2020-04-18 | 33.333 | Bad | -1 |
| Saeedi | Poland | Total | 9416 | 8563 | 2020-04-18 | -9.961 | Good | 1 |
| Saeedi | Poland | Death | 495 | 339 | 2020-04-18 | -46.018 | Bad | -1 |
| Pedomi | Germany | Total | 142000 | 141397 | 2020-04-18 | -0.426 | Superhuman | 5 |
| Pedomi | Germany | Death | 3400 | 4352 | 2020-04-18 | 21.875 | Average | 0 |
| Pedomi | Kuwait | Total | 2000 | 1751 | 2020-04-18 | -14.220 | Average | 0 |
| Pedomi | Kuwait | Death | 6 | 6 | 2020-04-18 | 0.000 | Oracle | 10 |
| Pedomi | Poland | Total | 9000 | 8563 | 2020-04-18 | -5.103 | Good | 1 |
| Pedomi | Poland | Death | 290 | 339 | 2020-04-18 | 14.454 | Average | 0 |
| Dr. Brauwolf | Germany | Total | 145000 | 141397 | 2020-04-18 | -2.548 | Outstanding | 3 |
| Dr. Brauwolf | Germany | Death | 4000 | 4352 | 2020-04-18 | 8.088 | Good | 1 |
| Dr. Brauwolf | Kuwait | Total | 1800 | 1751 | 2020-04-18 | -2.798 | Outstanding | 3 |
| Dr. Brauwolf | Kuwait | Death | 4 | 6 | 2020-04-18 | 33.333 | Bad | -1 |
| Dr. Brauwolf | Poland | Total | 9000 | 8563 | 2020-04-18 | -5.103 | Good | 1 |
| Dr. Brauwolf | Poland | Death | 315 | 339 | 2020-04-18 | 7.080 | Good | 1 |
| Vasco | Germany | Total | 152000 | 141397 | 2020-04-18 | -7.499 | Good | 1 |
| Vasco | Germany | Death | 4175 | 4352 | 2020-04-18 | 4.067 | Outstanding | 3 |
| Vasco | Kuwait | Total | 2000 | 1751 | 2020-04-18 | -14.220 | Average | 0 |
| Vasco | Kuwait | Death | 12 | 6 | 2020-04-18 | -100.000 | Very bad | -3 |
| Vasco | Poland | Total | 9200 | 8563 | 2020-04-18 | -7.439 | Good | 1 |
| Vasco | Poland | Death | 310 | 339 | 2020-04-18 | 8.555 | Good | 1 |
| KK | Germany | Total | 146500 | 141397 | 2020-04-18 | -3.609 | Outstanding | 3 |
| KK | Germany | Death | 3700 | 4352 | 2020-04-18 | 14.982 | Average | 0 |
| KK | Kuwait | Total | 1923 | 1751 | 2020-04-18 | -9.823 | Good | 1 |
| KK | Kuwait | Death | 5 | 6 | 2020-04-18 | 16.667 | Average | 0 |
| KK | Poland | Total | 8302 | 8563 | 2020-04-18 | 3.048 | Outstanding | 3 |
| KK | Poland | Death | 298 | 339 | 2020-04-18 | 12.094 | Average | 0 |
| Pinche | Germany | Total | 140000 | 141397 | 2020-04-18 | 0.988 | Superhuman | 5 |
| Pinche | Germany | Death | 4000 | 4352 | 2020-04-18 | 8.088 | Good | 1 |
| Pinche | Kuwait | Total | 1700 | 1751 | 2020-04-18 | 2.913 | Outstanding | 3 |
| Pinche | Kuwait | Death | 2 | 6 | 2020-04-18 | 66.667 | Very bad | -3 |
| Pinche | Poland | Total | 9000 | 8563 | 2020-04-18 | -5.103 | Good | 1 |
| Pinche | Poland | Death | 305 | 339 | 2020-04-18 | 10.029 | Average | 0 |
| Saeedi | UK | Total | 145867 | 148377 | 2020-04-25 | 1.692 | Superhuman | 5 |
| Saeedi | UK | Death | 21160 | 20319 | 2020-04-25 | -4.139 | Outstanding | 3 |
| Saeedi | Portugal | Total | 23550 | 23392 | 2020-04-25 | -0.675 | Superhuman | 5 |
| Saeedi | Portugal | Death | 895 | 880 | 2020-04-25 | -1.705 | Superhuman | 5 |
| Saeedi | Iran | Total | 90670 | 89328 | 2020-04-25 | -1.502 | Superhuman | 5 |
| Saeedi | Iran | Death | 5570 | 5650 | 2020-04-25 | 1.416 | Superhuman | 5 |
| Dr. Brauwolf | UK | Total | 145000 | 148377 | 2020-04-25 | 2.276 | Outstanding | 3 |
| Dr. Brauwolf | UK | Death | 22000 | 20319 | 2020-04-25 | -8.273 | Good | 1 |
| Dr. Brauwolf | Portugal | Total | 24000 | 23392 | 2020-04-25 | -2.599 | Outstanding | 3 |
| Dr. Brauwolf | Portugal | Death | 880 | 880 | 2020-04-25 | 0.000 | Oracle | 10 |
| Dr. Brauwolf | Iran | Total | 87000 | 89328 | 2020-04-25 | 2.606 | Outstanding | 3 |
| Dr. Brauwolf | Iran | Death | 5500 | 5650 | 2020-04-25 | 2.655 | Outstanding | 3 |
| Vasco | UK | Total | 146000 | 148377 | 2020-04-25 | 1.602 | Superhuman | 5 |
| Vasco | UK | Death | 20500 | 20319 | 2020-04-25 | -0.891 | Superhuman | 5 |
| Vasco | Portugal | Total | 22300 | 23392 | 2020-04-25 | 4.668 | Outstanding | 3 |
| Vasco | Portugal | Death | 870 | 880 | 2020-04-25 | 1.136 | Superhuman | 5 |
| Vasco | Iran | Total | 88500 | 89328 | 2020-04-25 | 0.927 | Superhuman | 5 |
| Vasco | Iran | Death | 5470 | 5650 | 2020-04-25 | 3.186 | Outstanding | 3 |
| KK | UK | Total | 141141 | 148377 | 2020-04-25 | 4.877 | Outstanding | 3 |
| KK | UK | Death | 20020 | 20319 | 2020-04-25 | 1.472 | Superhuman | 5 |
| KK | Portugal | Total | 22345 | 23392 | 2020-04-25 | 4.476 | Outstanding | 3 |
| KK | Portugal | Death | 876 | 880 | 2020-04-25 | 0.455 | Superhuman | 5 |
| KK | Iran | Total | 88888 | 89328 | 2020-04-25 | 0.493 | Superhuman | 5 |
| KK | Iran | Death | 5555 | 5650 | 2020-04-25 | 1.681 | Superhuman | 5 |
| Pedomi | UK | Total | 130000 | 148377 | 2020-04-25 | 12.385 | Average | 0 |
| Pedomi | UK | Death | 16900 | 20319 | 2020-04-25 | 16.827 | Average | 0 |
| Pedomi | Portugal | Total | 21500 | 23392 | 2020-04-25 | 8.088 | Good | 1 |
| Pedomi | Portugal | Death | 830 | 880 | 2020-04-25 | 5.682 | Good | 1 |
| Pedomi | Iran | Total | 89000 | 89328 | 2020-04-25 | 0.367 | Superhuman | 5 |
| Pedomi | Iran | Death | 5700 | 5650 | 2020-04-25 | -0.885 | Superhuman | 5 |
| A-Aron | UK | Total | 125627 | 148377 | 2020-04-25 | 15.333 | Average | 0 |
| A-Aron | UK | Death | 17240 | 20319 | 2020-04-25 | 15.153 | Average | 0 |
| A-Aron | Portugal | Total | 21011 | 23392 | 2020-04-25 | 10.179 | Average | 0 |
| A-Aron | Portugal | Death | 747 | 880 | 2020-04-25 | 15.114 | Average | 0 |
| A-Aron | Iran | Total | 82568 | 89328 | 2020-04-25 | 7.568 | Good | 1 |
| A-Aron | Iran | Death | 5177 | 5650 | 2020-04-25 | 8.372 | Good | 1 |
| Pinche | UK | Total | 156000 | 148377 | 2020-04-25 | -5.138 | Good | 1 |
| Pinche | UK | Death | 21400 | 20319 | 2020-04-25 | -5.320 | Good | 1 |
| Pinche | Portugal | Total | 23200 | 23392 | 2020-04-25 | 0.821 | Superhuman | 5 |
| Pinche | Portugal | Death | 900 | 880 | 2020-04-25 | -2.273 | Outstanding | 3 |
| Pinche | Iran | Total | 89000 | 89328 | 2020-04-25 | 0.367 | Superhuman | 5 |
| Pinche | Iran | Death | 5520 | 5650 | 2020-04-25 | 2.301 | Outstanding | 3 |