Chapter 1 Introduction

1.1 Statement of Problem

For many decades, researchers and Waterfowl association have been monitoring the migration of Waterfowl. The migration of waterfowl is caused by the various species of ducks that cannot survive the frigid temperature of north and must relocate to a warmer climate. As far as the United States, the southeast reason can be considered to be a hotspot for ducks to migrate to for its year-round warmer climate. However, research on the migration of Waterfowl was not been conducted from New Orleans, LA to the panhandle of Florida until, in 2014, research team based out of the University of West Florida’s biology department started their research on Waterfowl migration. There are many different aspects the team discovered when conducting their research that could affect the migration of ducks such as weather, location and disturbances. The purpose of this research is to see if there is a direct correlation between the various aspects the researchers observed and the number of birds that were observed.

1.2 Relevance of Problem

The research team was aspiring to bring research of Waterfowl migration in an area where there was no previous research. With the Pensacola and Santa Rosa being locating in warm climate, it can be assumed that it is an ideal temperature for ducks to migrate to when colder weather approaches them. However, other climates that are north of here, such as lakes located in Alabama, have grown into a warmer climate in recent years. This sparked some interest to the team due to the question of whether ducks need to travel down as far as the Gulf coast for warmer climates or are they starting to migrate to a closer warm climate. Variables such as weather and temperature were crucial factors that was being looked at to see if they directly affected the number of birds still migrating to the area.

Not only were different migration patterns an interest to the team for conducting this research but also to see if the bird counts are decreasing from local seasonal hunting. In the state of Florida, licensed hunters can hunt on various dates based on various species during August 8th to February 19th. The researchers decided that they would want to use their data to see if hunting season is causing a decrease in waterfowl count.

1.3 Literature Review

In 2014, a group of researchers set out to fill in some gaps within the knowledge of waterfowl in Canada [1]. Surprisingly, every May since 1995, the U.S Fish and Wildfire Service and Canadian Wildfire Service will survey the breeding distributions of many various waterfowl species; however, there is little to no research on Canada’s waterfowl. The team decided to use 15 years of this data (1995-2010) from the aerial transect survey in order to complete their model concerning 17 selected species. Within the data, total pairs of waterfowl were estimated counts of the pairs based on raw counts that were observed. Using BRTS, the researchers chose to go the route of using a Poisson model with the annual counts of waterfowl pairs per segment were independent random variables [1]. The team found that their models performed well and there was a good correspondence between the predictions and observations. As far as species abundance patterns, they concluded that the highest density in the prairie-parkland region and in various location throughout the western boreal. The data that was found in their study now has the purpose of guiding future models on waterfowl such as further research on regional subsets from the data.

Furthermore, in 2020, another group of researchers out of Canada decided to further the waterfowl research for the area of southern Ontario [2]. The purpose of this research was to test for changes in the fall migration of six species of waterfowl in southern Ontario, Canada. The data was collected at Great Lakes falls within Bird Conservation Region 13 and the lower Great Lakes/St. Lawrence Plain, in the North American Bird Conservation Initiative. Fixed-wing aircrafts were used to observe the estimated counts of individual waterfowl within the given survey sectors. This research team used the generalized linear mixed-models with a normally distributed error structure with their full model containing year, annual indices for NAO, the ONI categorical variable to represent ENSO, and the interaction between NAO and ENSO as predictor variables [2]. The researchers found through they found that blue-winged teal migration was the earliest in the beginning September followed by the American green-winged teal and American wigeon in the middle of October. They also found that mallard was the most abundant species was the most abundance species.

Earlier studies such as the one conducted by Frank C. Bellrose (1968) shows the earliest research on waterfowl migration [3]. Bellrose decided to continue the research from Fredrick Lincoln’s 1935 study on the mapping of dour waterfowl flyways of North America. Following the 1935 research, there was much data obtain but there was no attempt to map the route within the flyway which inspired Bellrose to further his research. Bellrose utilized visual sightings, radar surveillance, aircraft sightings, and previous waterfowl censuses to begin his research. Bellrose discovered that there is significant difference in the densities of waterfowl passages over the country [3]. It was also found that these difference in the densities are stemmed from the productivity and locations of the breeding grounds.

Waterfowl studies done outside of North America are more than likely using migration research to track the outbreak of an influenza. A more recent study from 2015 tracked the migration of waterfowl to study the H5N8 influenza in the Republic of Korea [4]. The team was inspired by the release of 2013 novel that went more in detail about the H5N8 influenza. Through the use of phylogeographic methods to reconstruct the viral spread of the H5N8 influenza, the research team was able to interpret results within the context of ecological data on poultry density, overwintering wild bird numbers, and bird migration patterns [4]. The resulting research confirmed the researchers predictions that waterfowl migration and domestic duck density were important to H5N8 epidemiology. This research has shed light on the question of whether the migration of waterfowl increases the spread of influenzas and adds to possibility of a global pandemic.

Another recent international study was conducted in 2016 by a research team based out of Japan. Their focus for studying the autumn migration of waterfowl was to see if the autumn migration of these birds were contributing to the transmission of the H5N1 virus [5]. The team utilized directional analysis to analyze the H5N1 transmission directions angular concentration of current circulating viral clades. Using this information, they compared these with the waterfowl migration patterns along the major waterfowl flyways [5]. The completed both of these methods for the spring and autumn migration. The team found that there was little significance in the difference between the autumn migration directions and the virus transmission, whereas the spring migration had a significantly larger difference. Thus, the team concluded autumn waterfowl migration played an important role in H5N1 transmission.