10 Day 10 (February 20)

10.1 Announcements

• The material I talk about today will come from Chapters 4, 6, and 23 (with a little bit from Chs 10 and 19)

• Activity 4 is posted

• Would a guide for activity 3 be useful?

• Comment about journals and attendance

• Selected questions/clarifications from journals

10.2 Our second statistical model

• Dig into the rabies test a bit more….
  • Rabies test results
  • Building a statistical model using a hierarchical Bayesian approach
  • Specify (write out) the data model
  • Specify the process model
  • Specify the parameter model (or prior) including hyper-parameters
  • Select an approach to obtain the posterior distribution
    • Gibbs sampler (see pg. 35 in BBM2L)
    • Derive full conditionals
    • Discussion of trade-offs with Gibbs sampler with analytical full conditionals vs. Metropolis-Hastings
  • Live example